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Confluence Alpha

Markets. Macro. Momentum


  • December 4, 2025

    OKTA – forgotten cyber security play at discounted price.

    Investment Thesis TLDR: Thesis type : relative valuation arbitrage play OKTA is a leader in identity & Access mngmnt domain of cyber security. Its competetive position is recognised by market research firms such as Gartner (refer to IAM magic quadrant). The company is profitable with good margins & trades at relatively low EV/rev multiple of… Continue reading

    Uncategorized
  • December 4, 2025

    short market history since 2020

    We created a new page on recent stock market history since Covid as summary/timeline of market events & their causality. Why This Page Exists — A Brief Reflection on Market History Since COVID Market history doesn’t repeat, but it rhymes.Every cycle is different, yet human behavior, policy reactions, liquidity cycles, and risk appetite create patterns… Continue reading

    Uncategorized
  • November 21, 2025

    Weight loss drugs/GLP sector

    GLP-1 Sector Investment Guide: The Divergence of 2025 GLP-1 INVESTMENT BLOG Thesis Macro Context Science Landscape Financials NVO Analysis Pipeline Risks Menu…ThesisMarket ContextFinancials The GLP Revolution Weight Loss Drugs A consolidated guide to the GLP-1 sector. While Eli Lilly surges on innovation, Novo Nordisk transitions into a value play. We explore the market opportunity, the… Continue reading

    blog post, dashboard, market commentry, Uncategorized
    Eli lilly, GLP, GLP-1, GLP-1 drugs, health care sector, LLY stock, Novo nordisk, NVO stock, stocks, value investing, weight loss
  • November 6, 2025

    Market commentry 06/11/2025 –

    General risk-off sentiment in markets today, as reflected in the heatmap below. Broad-based selloff across sectors except for a few names like $GOOGL showing relative strength. Classic risk-off setup: 🔍 What’s Going On : As mentioned in my previous commentary on 04/11, I expected volatility through the first half of November before markets stabilize by… Continue reading

    blog post, dashboard, market commentry, Uncategorized
  • November 4, 2025

    markets commentry – 04/11/2025

    S&P fwd estimated ESP is 280$ and at index price value of 6800 the current PE is around 25 (4% earning yield), the markets are expensive from a historical perspective (avg pe has been 16-18) . There are few important events this week which could lead to small correction. I will discuss below few catalyst… Continue reading

    blog post, market commentry
    market valuations, s&p500 pe, sp500 eps, sp500 market commentry, sp500 pe, spy eps, spy pe
  • September 29, 2025

    LVMH – Luxery

    LVMH Stock Pitch Company Overview LVMH Moët Hennessy Louis Vuitton SE (LVMH) is a global leader in luxury goods, headquartered in Paris, France. The company operates a diversified portfolio of over 75 prestigious brands across six segments: Fashion & Leather Goods (e.g., Louis Vuitton, Dior), Wines & Spirits (e.g., Moët & Chandon, Hennessy), Perfumes &… Continue reading

    blog post, market commentry, Uncategorized
    Fashion, Luxery sector, LVMH
  • September 23, 2025

    Confluence Alpha – what this blog is all about:

    This blog is for swing traders and investors who are interested in liquid financial securities. This includes a range of instruments like stocks, bonds, notes, ETFs, mutual funds, crypto assets, and underlying derivatives such as options, warrants, and other leveraged products. I created this blog to generate and discuss investing ideas for various financial assets.… Continue reading

    blog post
    alpha generation, finance, finance blog, investing, investing blog, options, stocks, stocks ideas

Recent Posts

  • OKTA – forgotten cyber security play at discounted price.
  • short market history since 2020
  • Weight loss drugs/GLP sector

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