GLP-1 Sector Investment Guide: The Divergence of 2025

The GLP Revolution

Weight Loss Drugs

A consolidated guide to the GLP-1 sector. While Eli Lilly surges on innovation, Novo Nordisk transitions into a value play. We explore the market opportunity, the science, and the emerging challengers.

🚀 Executive Summary: The Investment Case

The GLP-1 market has evolved into a distinct duopoly with diverging investment narratives. Eli Lilly (LLY) continues to trade as a high-growth momentum stock, driven by the superior efficacy of its next-gen pipeline. Conversely, Novo Nordisk (NVO) has seen valuation compression, effectively transitioning into a “value” play with P/E multiples significantly below its historical averages.

Total Addressable Market (2030)

$150 Billion+

Projected Annual Revenue

Market Phase

Consolidation

Duopoly Established

Key Catalyst

Gen 4 Data

Retatrutide & Oral Pills

The Macro Context: Why This Matters

This is not just a lifestyle trend. The investment thesis is underpinned by a chronic, global metabolic crisis that requires long-term pharmacological intervention.

1B+

Globally Obese

537M

Adults w/ Diabetes

96M

US Pre-Diabetic

33%

Metabolic Syndrome

The Science: Mechanism of Action

Understanding the molecules driving the pipeline battles.

GLP-1

Satiety Signal

Targets brain to signal fullness.
(Ozempic/Wegovy)

GIP

Fat Synergist

Improves fat breakdown & enhances GLP-1.
(Mounjaro/Zepbound)

Glucagon

Energy Burner

Increases resting energy expenditure.
(Retatrutide)

Amylin

Muscle Sparer

Non-incretin pathway. Better muscle preservation.
(CagriSema)

The Evolution of Weight Loss

Gen	Era	Key Drugs	Mechanism & Efficacy
Gen 1	1950s-2010s	Phentermine, Orlistat	Stimulants. ~5% loss. High cardiac risk.
Gen 2	2010-2020	Saxenda (Liraglutide)	Daily GLP-1. ~8-10% loss. Poor adherence.
Gen 3	2021-Present	Wegovy (Semaglutide)	Weekly GLP-1. ~15% loss. Current Standard of Care.
Gen 4	2024-Future	Zepbound, Retatrutide	Multi-Agonists. ~20-25%+ loss. Rivals surgery.

Competitive Landscape: Portfolios & Phases

The Incumbents

Dominant Market Share

Novo Nordisk (NVO)

Wegovy / Ozempic
Semaglutide (GLP-1)

Marketed
CagriSema
Amylin/GLP-1

Phase 3

Eli Lilly (LLY)

Zepbound / Mounjaro
Tirzepatide (GLP-1/GIP)

Marketed
Retatrutide
Triple Agonist

Phase 3

The Challengers

High M&A Potential

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX) Phase 3 Ready

VK2735 (Injectable & Oral)

Dual GLP-1/GIP. Direct competitor to Zepbound.
Roche / Carmot Phase 1/2

CT-388

Dual GLP-1/GIP. Acquired for $2.7B.
Amgen (AMGN) Phase 2

MariTide

GIPR Antagonist. Long duration.
Zealand Pharma (ZEAL) Phase 2

Petrelintide

Long-acting Amylin. Muscle-sparing.

The Valuation Gap

Comparing the Value Play (NVO) vs. The Growth Play (LLY)

Novo Nordisk

P/E Ratio (Normalized)

Value pricing near pharma avg.

~14.1x

Price / Sales

Discounted vs Leader.

~4.7x

Market Cap

Total Valuation

~$530B

Revenue Trajectory ($B)

⚠️ Why is Novo Nordisk Down?

NVO was priced for perfection, but recent “Gen 4” data has disappointed investors, causing a rotation into LLY.

1. CagriSema “Lukewarm” Data Efficacy (~24%) is good, but tolerability is worse (high nausea). It’s not the “Zepbound Killer” market hoped for.
2. Monlunabant Failure Oral CB1 blocker showed neuropsychiatric side effects.

The Manufacturing Moat

Despite pipeline issues, NVO has a massive defensive advantage in supply chain.

✅ Acquired Catalent ($16.5B) for 3 sterile sites.
✅ $10B+ Annual Capex spending.
❌ Competitors rely on squeezed CDMOs.

Master Pipeline Matrix

Candidate	Company	Mech	Efficacy (Peak)	Status	Analysis
Retatrutide	Eli Lilly	Triple G	24-26%	Phase 3	“The King.” Highest efficacy. Uses Glucagon to burn energy.
VK2735	Viking	Dual Agonist	Pending	Phase 3 Ready	Top Buyout Target. Best oral data in class. Injectable matches Zepbound.
CagriSema	Novo Nordisk	Amylin+GLP1	18-22%	Phase 3	High nausea rates. Incremental gain over Wegovy, not revolutionary.
MariTide	Amgen	GIP Antag	~20% (52wk)	Phase 2	Potential for monthly/quarterly dosing.
Danuglipron	Pfizer	Oral GLP-1	TBD	Early Phase	Pfizer’s “Holy Grail” bid for a cheap daily pill to replace injections.

M&A: The Scarcity Premium

DEAL DONE

Pfizer buys Metsera ($10B)

Huge premium for Phase 2 assets. Validates “Buy or Die” strategy for big pharma.

NEXT TARGET

Viking Therapeutics (VKTX)

Last independent with Phase 3 assets. Valuation ~$7-9B. Suitors: Merck, J&J.

Market Impact & Risks

📉 Bear Cases: Disrupted Industries

Snack Foods (KHC, MDLZ)

Patients cut caloric intake by 20-30%.

Alcohol (STZ, BUD)

GLP-1s curb “reward seeking” behaviors/drinking.

CPAP Devices (RMD)

Weight loss reduces sleep apnea severity.

⚠️ Drug & Market Risks

Pricing Pressure

Medicare negotiations will eventually crush the $1,000/month price point. Volume must offset deflation.

Compounding Pharmacies

“Grey market” generics are eroding branded revenue and posing safety risks.

Muscle Atrophy

Rapid weight loss causes muscle loss (Sarcopenia). Future winners must preserve lean mass.

Confluence Alpha

Weight loss drugs/GLP sector